Nuremberg Tour 19

An earnest Lieutenant, with eyes too bright, rises, "ok class, time to understand how generals think. We used to keep this secret but ran into too many morale problems." Points to me, "a celebrity of sorts in our midst. So tell the class your opinion of the draft."
"Completely unfair, Lt, what century was Canada last in a war? Surely, with these salaries, they should get sufficient volunteers."
"Very good, I like plain speakers, dislike BS. Resta you, hands up all who agree."
Every hand.
Thin smile, "our little friend here is obviously a person who stayed awake during high school economics. Supply and demand, pay enough, they will come. But they don't. You see, there is one giant gaping hole in our friend's theory, social standing. Being here is considered akin to being in a leprosy colony in Bangladesh or a Dalit (untouchable) sweeping roads in India. Ok, Rachel, answer this. Suppose you were offered double your civvy salary to join for a five year hitch. Would you take it? Would you spend more than one minute even pondering it?"
"No to both Lt."
"I rest my case. You see, this happens to be a free democracy. Oh I know, some of you will say sort of free and partly democratic, no argument from me on that. But look around the world, we are perceived by our allies as shirkers. What happens when we can't meet that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) troop commitment? Economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure. And so, since no one else does the job, we pass the torch to you. That's the price you pay for living in a sort of democracy. And since we aren't as wise as Solomon, cannot possibly devise a totally fair draft, we made it a lottery. No one here can blame some bureaucrat in Ottawa for selecting her. Blame God, the gods, fate, luck, karma, kismet or anything else you choose to blame. But you will tour with us, even if you complain every minute of every day."
People shift uneasily.
Icy smile, "now as promised, the General eye view. Our biggest allies tend to vote in cowboys more often than liberals. Their right of course, but it has the unfortunate side effect of dragging them into too many international adventures. As always, it's easier to engage than disengage. Not surprisingly, they waste a lot of military labor on places which are now essentially obsolete to them. And yet, even though their finances are in worse shape than ours, even though their military is mathematically overextended, the voters want more. Always one more place." Pause for effect, "now imagine we fail to meet our NATO commitment. We may well BE that next place. Imagine that, being the 51st state, a real draft, not a pretend one like ours."
Shudders.
"Very good, you people learn fast. Now across the pond, the soccer hooligans are enthusiastic supporters of this very view. They too have a real draft, they too go on real adventures. They too would be quite ticked if we opted to lapse into total isolationism. Given everything, it takes a lot of diplomatic skill for the Canadian government to avoid all of this. Would you agree with me, Rachel?"
"An hour ago Lt, no. Now I do."
"Good, now let us see the Kremlin view. The border with Finland is not a problem. Non-aggression pact, total Finnish neutrality, horrendous terrain to fight upon.
"Estonia, Latvia, Lithunia are a big cost. No actual armed rebellion, but sufficient strikes and demonstrations, they swallow up large neoSoviet garrisons.
"Belarus is an asset, loyal, no need to garrison, large contributor to numbers of service personnel.
"Ukraine is an enormous white elephant, huge garrison needed to keep a lid on tension.
"Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria all offer peace, but at a price. Almost total home rule, only thing they need to contribute is small troop numbers on the western border, to watch us.
"Yugoslav countries and Albania, big cost, all that ethnic tension.
"Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan also cost.
"Soviet Central Asia is totally at peace with the masters in Moscow, but the cost is gargantuan. Immense aid needed to bring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan up to Russian living standards. They also consume manpower, watching the China border and interdicting drug flows originating in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.
"So as you can see, Ivan the Bear has a lot more problems than you do. Ivan is perfectly willing to live and let live, provided we allow him to."